AI Physical Infrastructure

Hyperscaler AI capex reached a ~$725B annual run-rate by Q1 2026, forcing a physical rebuild of the grid interface, thermal systems, and rack-level interconnect. The inflection is already booked across the supply chain: backlogs up 33–108% year over year at the switchgear, cooling, and connectivity layer. We own the picks-and-shovels, not the shovels' customers.

TRACKED METRIC — BIG-4 HYPERSCALER CAPEX GUIDANCE + SUPPLIER BACKLOGS (QUARTERLY FILINGS)

ALAB Watch

Astera Labs, Inc.

Astera Labs is the purest merchant-silicon play on inside-the-rack AI connectivity — PCIe 6 retimers today, Scorpio scale-up fabric switches ramping in 2H 2026 — and we expect revenue to roughly quadruple from ~$1.0B TTM to ~$4.2B by mid-2031. At $326.97 (~55x EV/TTM sales), that outcome i…

PV RANGE $20.56 – $70.00 ACTIONABLE BELOW $25.85 SINCE PUBLICATION +6.7% SEQ 3

CLS Watch

Celestica Inc.

Celestica is the purest large-cap manufacturing play on hyperscaler AI networking and rack integration — CCS segment revenue grew 76% y/y in Q1 2026 and management guides $19.0B for 2026 — and we expect revenue to compound roughly 16%/yr through 2031. But at $339 the stock already discount…

PV RANGE $73.44 – $317.13 ACTIONABLE BELOW $128.42 SINCE PUBLICATION +8.6% SEQ 1

CRDO Watch

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd

Credo is the purest public play on active electrical cables becoming the default rack-scale interconnect for AI clusters: FY2026 (ended 2026-05-02) revenue tripled to $1,335.1M, management guided FY2027 to grow another 80%+ with a second $600M+ optical leg, and the model already prints 68%…

PV RANGE $52.83 – $237.23 ACTIONABLE BELOW $90.24 SINCE PUBLICATION −2.9% SEQ 2

MOD Watch

Modine Manufacturing Company

After the Gentherm spin-off closes (targeted Q4 CY2026), Modine becomes a majority data-center-cooling company: Data Centers revenue of $1.1B in FY26 (+73%) compounds roughly 25%/yr through FY2031, underwritten by a >$4B CY2027-29 hyperscale capacity agreement, while Climate Solutions adju…

PV RANGE $70.00 – $381.63 ACTIONABLE BELOW $166.19 SINCE PUBLICATION −16.9% SEQ 4

Nuclear Fuel Cycle

AI power demand plus policy has restarted the Western nuclear fuel cycle: first-ever US reactor restarts are underway, and the inflection sits in fuel and components — not SMR story stocks. Centrus alone holds a $3.9B backlog extending to 2040. The chokepoints are few, licensed, and listed.

TRACKED METRIC — URANIUM LONG-TERM CONTRACTING VOLUME AND TERM PRICE; ENRICHER/COMPONENT BACKLOGS

BWXT Watch

BWX Technologies, Inc.

BWXT is the sole manufacturer of nuclear reactors and fuel for the U.S. Navy and the most complete investable expression of the nuclear-fuel-cycle build-out, with backlog up 77% year-over-year to $8.65B and 2026 revenue guided above $3.75B. The falsifiable claim: backlog and Government Ope…

PV RANGE $55.00 – $184.47 ACTIONABLE BELOW $93.44 SINCE PUBLICATION −3.3% SEQ 6

CCJ Watch

Cameco Corporation

Cameco is the only Western vertically integrated nuclear-fuel-cycle major — tier-one uranium mining, conversion, and 49% of Westinghouse — and we expect consolidated revenue to compound roughly 8%/yr through 2031 as legacy contracts reprice toward the US$90/lb long-term price and the US go…

PV RANGE $22.39 – $70.92 ACTIONABLE BELOW $32.21 SINCE PUBLICATION −1.7% SEQ 7

LEU Watch

Centrus Energy Corp

Centrus is the only U.S.-owned uranium enricher and the only NRC-licensed HALEU producer, with a $3.9B backlog extending to 2040 and a signed $900M DOE task order that converts its Piketon cascade from demonstration to commercial operation — over five years its revenue should roughly tripl…

PV RANGE $50.00 – $239.06 ACTIONABLE BELOW $101.65 SINCE PUBLICATION +8.0% SEQ 5

UEC Watch

Uranium Energy Corp

UEC owns the largest licensed uranium production platform in the US (~12M lbs/yr) and just achieved a genuine operational inflection — first production at Burke Hollow in April 2026, the first new US ISR mine in over a decade — but at $9.73 the market pays ~$4.8B for $20.2M of TTM revenue …

PV RANGE $1.10 – $6.56 ACTIONABLE BELOW $1.90 SINCE PUBLICATION +0.9% SEQ 8

Space Economy

Starship V3 flew in May 2026 targeting $100–200/kg against ~$1,500/kg today — a two-order-of-magnitude cost curve with decades to run. We hold the revenue-generating side of it: launch, landers, and the downstream data layer, where aggregate disclosed backlog across the pure-plays already exceeds $5B.

TRACKED METRIC — AGGREGATE DISCLOSED BACKLOG/RPO ACROSS LISTED SPACE PURE-PLAYS; LAUNCH CADENCE

FLY Watch

Firefly Aerospace, Inc.

Firefly's ~$1.3B backlog converts into $420–450M of 2026 revenue and compounds roughly 20–25%/yr through 2031 as Eclipse reaches launch cadence, Blue Ghost lunar deliveries become annual, and SciTec's missile-warning software rides Golden Dome funding. But at $20.70 (~6.6x EV / 2026 guided…

PV RANGE $5.03 – $26.73 ACTIONABLE BELOW $9.95 SINCE PUBLICATION +3.2% SEQ 11

LUNR Watch

Intuitive Machines, Inc.

Intuitive Machines has converted itself — mostly by acquisition — from a lunar-lander niche player into a $900M–$1B/yr vertically integrated space prime, and we forecast it converts its $1.055B backlog into roughly $1.6B of revenue by 2031 at a ~2.0× EV/Sales exit, which is worth about $11…

PV RANGE $2.45 – $17.22 ACTIONABLE BELOW $5.82 SINCE PUBLICATION −4.5% SEQ 12

PL Watch

Planet Labs PBC

Sovereign daily-Earth-imaging subscriptions are inflecting Planet into a durable, FCF-positive data business: FY2026 delivered the first profitable year ($52.9M FCF, backlog +79%), and we expect backlog above $1.2B and revenue above $500M by FY2029 with FCF remaining positive. But at $22.3…

PV RANGE $4.43 – $20.58 ACTIONABLE BELOW $7.82 SINCE PUBLICATION +0.1% SEQ 10

RKLB Watch

Rocket Lab Corporation

Rocket Lab is the only proven non-SpaceX end-to-end space company and its operating inflection is real — Q1 2026 revenue grew 63.5% to $200.3M with a record $2.2B backlog — but at ~$67 (~$42B market cap, ~60x TTM sales) the price already assumes near-flawless Neutron execution plus a seaml…

PV RANGE $6.55 – $38.49 ACTIONABLE BELOW $13.01 SINCE PUBLICATION +1.6% SEQ 9

Themes we said no to — in public.

A theme must pass five gates before any thesis in it can publish: a structural 5–10 year driver, revenue inflection already visible in filings, at least three listed pure-plays, a trackable quarterly metric, and live disagreement. Failures get published with the failing gate named — the gates are only real if you can watch them reject things.